On April 19th I made a blog post under the heading Serie A: Napoli and Benevento doing better than the official table shows. At that time, the alt-3 table had Napoli in 4th place, ahead of Juventus; and Benevento were placed 13th in the alt-3 table.
Now that the season is complete, we see that Napoli finished 5th, below Juventus; and Benevento are relegated from Serie A having finished 18th.
This is nice empirical evidence — if any such evidence is needed — of my frequently-repeated assertion that the alt-3 table is not a prediction. The purpose of the alt-3 table is (only) to provide a better indication — i.e., better than the official league table — of team standings at the time when the alt-3 table is computed.
Napoli managed only a draw in their last match, at home to Verona; whereas Juventus achieved wins in all of their last three matches — including a stunning home win against table-topping rivals Internazionale, from an 89th-minute penalty — to clinch qualification for next season’s UEFA Champions League.
Benevento’s fate was sealed by poor results in their last four matches, three of which were against similarly low-ranked opponents; in particular, the home defeat against Cagliari was decisive.
So, it’s congratulations to Juventus and commiserations to Benevento.
Football is a gloriously unpredictable game, and long may it remain so!
As ever: to see any team’s full schedule-strength chart, showing the extent to which their fixture list to date has been relatively easy or hard, just click on the team’s name in the alt-3 Serie A table.